No Money-No Honey

Setubal-Belenenses X2 @2.10

As you probably know hosts are in deep financial troubles, and players didn't get their checks for three months now.

Talks of Setubal's chairman with english investors failed, despite they've puted so much faith in them. And these are the words of some (important) players of Setubal:
Bruno Ribeiro: "We don't have patience anymore. Despite all problems, we kept giving our best game after game, and our 3. place is not a luck. But we make living from this, we have families to take care off, and if I get offer from some other club, I wont think twice."
Nandinho: "We are tired of so much lies, and we have completely lost trust and confidence in president and board. I will always give my best wearing this shirt, but if some other club calls me, I will leave."

History usually doesn't have to mean a lot, but Belenenses always made good results against Setubal. Setubal didn't won against them in the last 4 years. Of course, Setubal looks much better this season, they are also Cup holders, and conceded only 3 goals so far. But on the other hand, every time they allowed opponent to score, they've lost the game. Main objective of the club's management before this season was staying in the league, and they still talking only about that, and that they need some 13 points more.
Of course, coach and players still stating that no matter what, they will start every game as a professionals, in order to win it. May be, i really can't tell, but ask yourself: do you really believe them? Answer on that will give you the answer also on one other question: should you bet on this game or not.

Italian Job

Siena - Messina Home @2.10

Long time ago, in small village called Monticiano near Siena, a little boy was born. He liked football so much and he tried to play it in some small village teams nearby. But fortunately for him, he didn't have any talent for that beautiful game. Later on, he quited school (he wasn't good in that neither), and start to work at small train station. He worked as a small train station chief untill his late 20's, and then he decided to change his life a bit. Well, maybe a bit more... But, we will be back on that story later.

For Siena, this is one of those games. No, I don't want to tell you stories like: "they need to win badly, they must win, they are so long without win...." and things like that. You can't make money on a simple fact that one team is in must win situation. Actually, if you are smart enough, you will realize that teams come in "must win situation" mostly when they are playing bad. We are making the money only when we choose a winner. Nothing else matters, like I said in one of my songs. Do we have a winner here? I think so.

In most of their last games Siena showed signs of improvement. Offensive line worked well, they scored 2 against Cagliari and 3 against Reggina. Defence was shaky, but Tudor should help, he's ready and he will probably start. Some problems with Alberto, Maccarone, Flo but they should be also ready. Taddei and Pecchia, two important players, still injured. For Messina, striker Amoruso injured, defender Fusco too, midfielder D'Agostino suspended, best striker Zampagna is back.

But to be honest, I think that this game could be decided on some other levels. It's not a secret that Fabiani and Perinetti (sports directors of this two clubs), are both very close to that former train station chief from the begining of the story. It's not a secret that when train station chief talks, they listen. To people who are informed, it's not a secret that he helped a lot in Siena's transfers this winter.

It's not a secret that he brought his man De Canio as a coach in Siena. To make him look uncapable to win a single game? I don't think so.

For this match referee is Bertini, and if I'm right Brescia fans probably remembered this guy well last season: Brescia-Juventus 2:3 (2:0). Even hardest Juventus fans agree on that game: "it was another shame for Italian football." And I can assure you: this referee also like trains.

Personally, I know the guy who knows the guys. You may say "no shit?", but you must admit, it sounds misterious at least. He told me: "I can't tell you anything for sure. It isn't like before, they keep it in just one or two players now, very often direction coming in a half time. But, if Siena don't win here, it will be a big, big surprise for me."

So, I guess you figured out for yourself. A little boy from the begining and train station chief, become most powerful man in Italian football (and not only there). Now he have his players, his coaches, his clubs, his millions, his houses, usual stuff... Here we have two teams controled by him, playing against each other and one (from his home town) need points a bit more than the other one. Deal made? Fixed? Maybe some uncautious foul in penalty box from some Messina player? I don't know, but I will take my chances. Btw, his friends from the old days in Tuscany says: "He liked girls a lot and besides Siena, he was a great Juventus fan." I don't know about the girls, but he got Juventus.

Be smart

I noticed that many guys are taking my picks as a finished thing. I know this may sound unbelievable, but even I can miss pick or two (in a year). So be smart and never place more than 3-4% of your betting bank on one game. Good Luck!

French connection

Lens - Metz Home @2.05

This is tricky league sometimes, but let's see do we have winner here. Lens is team with more potential and overal, with better individuals than opponent, but of course that's not enough to win the game. Before the last round, Lens was unbelievable 12 games without win. Their coach was near to be sacked. And then, they were losing 1:0 against Sochaux. And then, their coach made two changes in the last 15 minutes. And then, both players scored just couple seconds after they came in. And then, Lens won. Of course, it was lucky, but what is important they broke that bad spell. Coach is hot shot now, and he said: "If we do not win against Metz at home, this win is worth of nothing. That one is very important, and one of those we must win at any costs."

They are extremely motivated for this game and they have important left midfielder Keita back from suspension. Metz is on downtrend, they were outplayed by St. Etiene at home in last game despite 2:2, and they are still without best striker Tum. Metz will go for a point here, probably with 5-4-1, relying on counters, the same way they managed to win 2:0 in Lens last season. Lens is usualy solid and pretty strong at home, last two seasons they won 50% of their games there, and this 1-5-1 now, should be considered as something not normal for them. They've lost only undeservedly against Lyon 0:1, that should have been draw too. They have had tough opponents, and made draws against Marseille, Monaco, PSG. Btw, with a little luck, they could have won at least two of these games.

Well yes, this could be a bit risky one, but that's how things are going in France. It's always possibility for some sh*ty 0:0 or 1:1, Lyon made draw at home with Bastia, Monaco with Ajaccio...but on the other hand that's why we didn't bet on those games, that's why people say we are smart, and that's why we are choosing this one. Everything below 1.80 in France isn't good choice.

Now you may probably ask: "what the hell that French connection title means? Is there anything "dirty" about this one?" Actually, there isn't. My only french connection was one nice french girl I met in Greece couple years ago. But... when I think twice, I can say that she was somehow willing for some "dirty games".

Southern comfort

Leiria-Benfica 1X @ 1.95-2.00 or Leiria(0) @3.00 or so

We skiped saturday, 'cause I was too busy for writing, but let's continue collecting money for that house with this one. Odds maybe droped a bit, 'cause me and couple friends of mine, have puted couple bucks here and there.

Facts:

In last six games against Benfica at home Leiria lost only once, won once and made 4 draws. This players are very disciplined and very motivated against "big names". Playing against big three, they've lost last time in February against probably the best team in Europe in that time, Porto, 1:2 as a guests. Since then, they played against Sporting (twice), Porto (as a guests again) and Benfica (as a guests) and had never lost!

Leiria have one of the best coaches in Portugal, people say. Vitor Pontes, very often compared with great Mourinho. He's young, great tactician, one of those coaches with brain who study every opponent 'till the bone. Same as Mourinho's Porto and Chelsea, his team is usually hard to score against. Games against big teams are his chance for Europe. He prepared his players for this game behind closed (sealed) door and neither jornalists, nor public were allowed to watch. Btw, he has never lost against Benfica!

Benfica had Uefa game on thursday, and have some important missings for this one: defender Miguel, and defensive midfielder Petit, both regulars and both important. Well known Nuno Gomes is still injured. Btw, do you like Trapattoni?

All tickets are almost sold, full house (20.000) expected.

People close to Benfica are afraid of referee for this match. They said: "He's close to some mob guys and his Porto's man."

Even if we only look at those last six games at Leiria, and that host lost only once, odds around 2.00 for Leiria not to lose this time are good. Of course, smart bettor can't rely just on that. Teams are changing, players and coaches come and go, times are changing, even fashion is changing. But with all that facts from above, I really can't see reason why that should be changed now. And people who follow Benfica agree: Team is actually not so great as it may look. Simao is class, that's sure, but if Leiria stop him, half job is done. He assist, he score (he scored more goals alone, than both regular strikers of Benfica together), he's the king. Something like Ronaldinho for Barcelona, but Benfica don't have Deco, Xavi, Eto...

We are the champions

Bayern Munchen+Dynamo Kiev double @2.00

Despite someone may think: "hey, Bayern hardly managed to win in Israel and Roma still have some good individuals", I will just say: forget about it.Explanation? Well, I don't think we need to talk here about one or two absences in some team and are they important or not. Don't need to compare influence of Bayern and Maccabi in Uefa. Don't need to argue how unmotivated ballerinas from Rome should react at -10 C in front of 100.000 people. The truth is: Bayern and Dynamo are much better teams than their opponents, they are in big need to win and they have home advantage. To spice it: Del Neri said: "First thing I want when we came there is a hot bath...with Totti in if it's possible." And regarding Cassano's face... I don't know but people say that his mother woke him up with dart picks when he was a kid. Yes, I love it when I'm bad.

Road to the fortune?

Real Sociedad - Athletic Bilbao A/H (HT/FT) @30

Well, I'm sure many of you knows the situation between these two Basque clubs. Some people say: Great rivalry,fans hate each other, always tough game to predict and things like that. I will tell you this: It may just looks that way from time to time. The truth is: these clubs always help each other and more of 80% of their games are aranged before starting whistle. This time they both need points, both will have hard season, and of course both clubs will get 3 points in these two games. But, why not make some money beside that. Having your money multiplied by 30 is always good business deal.My source (player manager in Spain and full time high stake bettor said to me: "Arttex,in both games between these two this season home team will win. I spoke with a guy yesterday and he said 5 players on the field will make this one to go A/H." And you know what: I believe him. And by the way, he didn't called me "arttex", he called me with my real name. And by the way, the odds are not bad.

After the first one

Well, if you followed first pick, you should have made 105.000 Eur already. From now on our stakes will be 1.000 Eur per game, and that should secure nice profit at the end of the season.

Good Luck! (but we don't need that, right?)

For 100.000 Eur

Sturm-Salzburg Home @ 2.05

This one is mostly based on info I recieved couple hours ago. First, it's not a some roumor, it's a first hand info from a professional bettor very close to FC Salzburg. He said:" They've sold it, everything is aranged, Sturm will win it." I know this guy well and I know what his words mean. Enough for me to go with 100.000 on this one.